Sticks Elite League V1 — Strategy Doctrine
Extends Sticks Ultimate V6 for friendlies, rotation-heavy slates, and World Cup preparation matches. Adds PMQ scoring, live triggers, rotation classification, and stake multipliers.
When This Profile Activates
- International friendlies
- World Cup 2026 preparation matches
- Pre-season friendlies
- Any match where rotation is expected (cup dead rubbers, already-qualified teams)
- Can be applied to league games during congested schedules (manager discretion)
PMQ Score (Pre-Match Qualification)
Replaces TPS for matches in this profile. 0-100 scale.
| Component | Max Points | How Scored |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson Edge | 30 | +3 points per 1% of edge above the 8% minimum. Edge 8% = 0pts. Edge 15% = 21pts. Edge 18% = 30pts (capped). |
| Rotation Classification | 20 | Structured (6+ core players) = 20. Mixed (3-5 core) = 10. Chaotic (<3 core) = 0. |
| Motivation Index | 25 | Title/relegation battle = 25. WC squad selection = 20. Mid-table nothing = 5. Pre-season = 3. |
| H2H & Form | 25 | Based on last 5 competitive matches. 5 points per relevant win. Draw = 2. Loss = 0. |
PMQ Grades
| Score | Grade | Action |
|---|---|---|
| 75-100 | Tradable | Proceed to live trigger check |
| 55-74 | Watchlist | Monitor only. Enter only if live triggers are exceptional. |
| 0-54 | Discard | No trade. Log as rejection. |
Rotation Classification
Requires API-Football lineups endpoint (available ~1h before KO for most matches).
| Class | Definition | Stake Multiplier |
|---|---|---|
| Structured | 6+ players from the team's strongest XI | 0.5x Kelly |
| Mixed | 3-5 core players in starting XI | 0.3x Kelly |
| Chaotic | <3 core players, heavy rotation | 0.2x Kelly |
The multiplier is applied AFTER quarter Kelly calculation:
final_stake = kelly_stake × rotation_multiplier
Example: Kelly says £5.00, rotation is Mixed → stake = £5.00 × 0.3 = £1.50
Motivation Index
| Context | Points | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Title race (top 3 fighting) | 25 | Maximum motivation |
| Relegation battle (bottom 5) | 25 | Desperation = intensity |
| WC 2026 final squad selection | 20 | Players fighting for spots |
| Europa/Conference League qualification | 15 | Meaningful but not life-or-death |
| Mid-table, nothing to play for | 5 | Low motivation, unpredictable |
| Pre-season friendly | 3 | Minimal competitive intent |
| Dead rubber (already qualified/relegated) | 2 | Very low motivation |
Live Trigger Execution
Bets are NOT placed pre-match. The system identifies value pre-match (PMQ score), then WAITS for live confirmation in the first 15-20 minutes.
Trigger Types
| Trigger | Definition | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Tempo | ≥4 shots OR ≥2 SoT within first 15 minutes | High — clear attacking intent |
| Pressure | ≥3 corners in first 15 min OR sustained 60%+ possession | Medium — territorial dominance |
| Imbalance | One team clearly dominating territory + chances | High — confirms pre-match thesis |
| Real Intent | Favorite showing expected quality (not coasting) | Medium — subjective, use caution |
Entry Rules
- PMQ score ≥ 75 → WAIT for live trigger
- Live trigger fires within 15-20 minutes → CHECK that edge still exists at current odds
- If edge still ≥ 6% (reduced threshold for live) → ENTER with rotation-adjusted stake
- If edge has eroded below 6% → PASS (log as stale-edge rejection)
- If no trigger by 25 minutes → PASS (log as no-trigger rejection)
Live Entry Odds Rule
When entering in-play after a trigger, the edge threshold drops from 8% to 6% because: - We have MORE information (live stats confirm the thesis) - The price may have moved toward us (positive CLV from waiting) - But it also may have moved away (must still verify edge exists)
Markets
Primary (always available)
- Home Win / Away Win
- Over/Under 2.5 Goals
- BTTS Yes / No
Secondary (structured rotation only)
Only allowed when rotation = Structured (6+ core players): - Double Chance (Home/Draw or Away/Draw) - Win Either Half
Double Chance and WEH are excluded for Mixed/Chaotic rotation because the reduced squad quality makes these markets less predictable.
Integration with V6
- Elite League PMQ runs ALONGSIDE TPS, not replacing it
- Matches get BOTH scores when the Elite League profile is active
- The higher-confidence score drives the decision
- All existing risk rules apply (stop-loss, exposure, max stake)
- All intelligence records are created (decisions, reviews, timing, archetypes)
- New archetypes: friendly-structured, friendly-mixed, friendly-chaotic
- Regime tag: "friendly" or "rotation-heavy" when this profile is active
WC 2026 Specific Notes
- April 2026 international break: managers finalizing rosters
- Key nations: Brazil, France, England, Germany, Spain, Argentina
- Focus on "audition" matches where squad spots are at stake
- Motivation index should be HIGH (20-25) for these matches
- Rotation will be significant — classify carefully